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Heating Oil Homes Face a 21% Jump in Winter Bills While Gas Homes Save 9%. What It Means for Your Housing Budget

EIA's winter forecast splits homeowners in two: heating oil and electric homes pay more, gas and propane homes pay less. Here's the monthly math.

By · Updated · 4 min read

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Your mortgage payment isn’t the only house bill that changes this winter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects homes that heat with heating oil to spend about $2,115 from November through March, up 21% from last winter. Homes heating with natural gas should spend about $640, down 9%.

Same country, same winter, very different bills. Here’s what that means month to month, and what to check if you’re buying a home right now.

Quick answers

  • Natural gas: $640 this winter, -9% (about 45% of homes heat with gas).
  • Electricity: $1,196, +4% (about 43% of homes).
  • Propane: $1,246, -3%.
  • Heating oil: $2,115, +21%, mostly in the Northeast. EIA expects heating oil prices to average about 34% higher.
  • Spread over five winter months, heating oil homes pay about $423 a month; gas homes about $128.

What the EIA forecast says

EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook 2026–27, released Oct. 6, 2026, expects national temperatures to be about the same as last winter. The difference comes mostly from fuel prices. EIA said high natural gas inventories give a cushion for gas users, while tight distillate markets push heating oil higher.

Regionally, the West stands out: EIA expects a colder winter there after an unusually warm one, so western electricity bills are forecast up about 9% and gas bills up 7%. In the South, electric-heat homes are forecast at about $1,079, up 3%.

We ran the numbers: your winter bill per month

We spread EIA’s forecasts over the five-month heating season and worked out the change versus last winter.

Main heating fuel Winter total (forecast) Per month (Nov–Mar) Change vs. last winter
Natural gas $640 ~$128 ~$63 less
Electricity $1,196 ~$239 ~$46 more
Propane $1,246 ~$249 ~$39 less
Heating oil $2,115 ~$423 ~$367 more

Last-winter figures are backed out from EIA’s percentage changes. These are national averages; your home’s size, insulation, thermostat habits and local weather will change your number.

ExampleA family in a heating-oil home in New England with a $2,300 mortgage payment could see their total monthly housing cost (mortgage + heat) near $2,723 in the coldest months, compared with about $2,428 for a similar gas-heated home. That’s roughly $295 a month apart, just from the fuel in the basement.

Why this matters if you’re buying a home

Lenders look at your mortgage payment, taxes, insurance and HOA dues when they decide how much you can borrow. Utility bills usually aren’t part of that math. But your budget has to cover them anyway.

  • Ask for utility history. Many sellers will share 12 months of heating bills. In some areas, utilities can provide usage history too.
  • Check the system’s age. An old oil furnace or boiler may need replacing soon. Your home inspection should note its condition.
  • Use the difference in negotiation. If a heating system needs work, that can support a seller credit. See how to use credits in our holiday-season negotiating guide.
  • Budget the whole cost. Add a realistic heat estimate when you run the affordability calculator and your DTI.
Myth buster“Electric heat is always the most expensive.” Not by this forecast. Nationally, electric-heat homes ($1,196) are expected to spend less than propane ($1,246) and far less than heating oil ($2,115) homes this winter, though more than gas homes.
Fun factEIA measures how cold a winter is with “heating degree days”: how far each day’s average temperature falls below 65°F, added up. Its forecast for this winter is 3,155 nationally, about the same as last winter.

What this means for you

  • Heating-oil homeowners: budget roughly $70–$75 more a month across the winter than last year. Ask your supplier about budget plans that spread payments out.
  • Gas and propane homeowners: a small break this year. Consider putting the savings toward principal with our extra payment calculator.
  • Buyers comparing two homes: add heat to the monthly cost before you choose. A cheaper house with oil heat may cost about the same each month as a pricier one with gas.
  • Homeowners with escrow: utilities aren’t in escrow, but taxes and insurance are. See how escrow works.

FAQ

Will heating bills be higher this winter?

It depends on your fuel. EIA expects higher bills for heating oil (+21%) and electricity (+4%) homes, and lower bills for natural gas (-9%) and propane (-3%) homes, compared with last winter.

How much does it cost to heat a house in winter?

EIA’s U.S. averages for November–March are about $640 for gas, $1,196 for electricity, $1,246 for propane and $2,115 for heating oil.

Do lenders count utility bills in my mortgage approval?

Usually not directly. Lenders focus on your housing payment and debts. That’s why you should budget utilities yourself.

Is a heating oil home a bad buy?

Not necessarily. But factor in higher and more volatile fuel costs, and the age of the system. Some owners later convert to a heat pump or gas, which has its own upfront cost.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026–27; EIA Today in Energy, Oct. 7, 2026; Keys & Coffee calculations. This article is general education, not financial advice. Keys & Coffee is not a lender.

Shivam Kaushik (IMSHIVA)

Written by

Shivam Kaushik· IMSHIVA

Founder & Director, QuibbleTech Solutions Pvt Ltd · Editor, Keys & Coffee

Shivam Kaushik is the founder of QuibbleTech Solutions Pvt Ltd and the editor of Keys & Coffee. He is not a licensed loan officer or financial adviser. Every guide here is written in plain English and checked against official sources such as the CFPB, HUD, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Reserve. For advice on your own loan, talk to a licensed lender.

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Keys & Coffee is an independent education site. We are not a lender or mortgage broker, we do not take loan applications or payments, and nothing here is financial advice. This site is not affiliated with Axia Home Loans, Axia Financial, LLC, or Planet Home Lending. Rates and rules change often — always confirm details with a licensed loan officer and check any lender on the NMLS Consumer Access site.

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