Rates & Market

Will the Fed Raise Rates in December 2026? Odds, Dates and What It Means for You

Markets see roughly a 78% chance of a Fed hike on December 9. Here's why, what could change it, and what a hike means for HELOCs, cards, savings and mortgages.

By Shivam Kaushik · Updated November 7, 2026 · 4 min read

Grey government building, Federal Reserve rate decision

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Updated November 7, 2026. We’ll update this page after the November 10 inflation report and again after the December 9 decision.

Short answer: it’s likely, but not certain. After a strong October jobs report, market pricing put the odds of a quarter-point Fed hike on December 9 at roughly 78%, according to Reuters figures reported on November 6. The Fed already raised rates in September, and two officials voted for another hike in October.

Quick answers

Current Fed rate: 3.75%–4.00% (set September 16, 2026).
Next decision: Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET, with new projections.
Odds of a hike: roughly 78% after the November 6 jobs report.
What it would change: the prime rate would rise from 7.00% to 7.25%, nudging up HELOCs, credit cards and many ARMs.
Fixed mortgages: may barely move, because markets already expect the hike.

How we got here

Date	What the Fed did
September 16, 2026	Raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023
October 28, 2026	Held rates steady in a 10–2 vote; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted another hike
December 9, 2026	Next decision, plus updated projections and the “dot plot”

In its September projections, the median Fed official expected the key rate to end 2026 around 4.1%. That points to one more quarter-point increase this year. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects a hike in December and another in early 2027.

What could change the Fed’s mind

The October inflation report (November 10). A cooler reading would make a pause more likely. A hot one would make a hike almost certain.
The November jobs report (early December). October’s 165,000 jobs surprised to the upside. Another strong month supports a hike.
Market stress. A sharp stock selloff or credit problem can make the Fed more cautious.

Myth buster“If the Fed raises rates, my fixed mortgage payment goes up.” No. A fixed-rate mortgage you already have never changes because of the Fed. A hike affects new loans and products tied to short-term rates, like HELOCs and adjustable-rate mortgages after their fixed period ends.

What a December hike would mean for your money

Most variable-rate consumer products are tied to the prime rate, which banks set at the top of the Fed’s range plus 3 percentage points. A quarter-point hike would move prime from 7.00% to 7.25%.

Example

HELOC: a $50,000 balance at prime + 1% would go from 8.00% to 8.25%. Interest-only payments rise from about $333 to $344 a month.
Credit card: on a $6,000 balance, a quarter point adds about $1.25 a month in interest. Small, but card rates are already high.
Savings: a high-yield account could earn about $25 more a year per $10,000 if the bank passes the hike along.
New 30-year fixed mortgage: often little change on the day itself, since bond markets have priced the hike in.

Check your own HELOC with the HELOC calculator and your mortgage with the mortgage calculator.

What to do before December 9

Buying a home? If you’re under contract, consider locking your rate before the meeting. A surprise in either direction can move rates. See how rate locks work.
Have a HELOC balance? Paying it down, or comparing it with a fixed home equity loan, can protect you from more hikes.
Have an ARM? Check when your rate next adjusts and what index it follows. Our guide to adjustable-rate mortgages explains caps.
Carrying card debt? Paying it down beats any rate move.

Fun factThe December meeting is one of four each year where Fed officials publish their own rate forecasts, shown as dots on a chart. Markets often react more to those dots than to the decision itself.

What happens to mortgage rates next

Mortgage rates follow long-term bond yields more than the Fed’s key rate. If the Fed hikes but signals it’s nearly done, mortgage rates could even ease. If it signals more hikes in 2027, rates could climb. Follow along on our weekly mortgage rate forecast, our next 90 days outlook and when will mortgage rates go down. For the Fed’s longer outlook, see will the Fed cut interest rates in 2027?

FAQ

Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?

Markets think it’s likely. After the November 6 jobs report, pricing pointed to roughly a 78% chance of a quarter-point hike on December 9. The November 10 inflation report could change that.

What is the Fed interest rate right now?

The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, set on September 16, 2026, and kept the same on October 28.

When is the next Fed meeting?

December 8–9, 2026. The decision comes out on December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

How does a Fed hike affect mortgage rates?

Indirectly. It pushes up short-term rates like HELOCs right away. Fixed mortgage rates depend more on bond yields and often move before the Fed acts.

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements (September 16 and October 28, 2026) and FOMC meeting calendar; Federal Reserve H.15 (prime rate); National Mortgage Professional (November 6, 2026), citing Reuters; Mortgage Bankers Association forecast as reported by BAM; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Examples are estimates. This article is general education, not financial advice. Keys & Coffee is not a lender.

Written by

Shivam Kaushik· IMSHIVA

Founder & Director, QuibbleTech Solutions Pvt Ltd · Editor, Keys & Coffee

Shivam Kaushik is the founder of QuibbleTech Solutions Pvt Ltd and the editor of Keys & Coffee. He is not a licensed loan officer or financial adviser. Every guide here is written in plain English and checked against official sources such as the CFPB, HUD, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Reserve. For advice on your own loan, talk to a licensed lender.

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Keys & Coffee is an independent education site. We are not a lender or mortgage broker, we do not take loan applications or payments, and nothing here is financial advice. This site is not affiliated with Axia Home Loans, Axia Financial, LLC, or Planet Home Lending. Rates and rules change often — always confirm details with a licensed loan officer and check any lender on the NMLS Consumer Access site.