Mortgage Rate Forecast: Where Rates Are Headed (Updated Weekly)
Last updated: November 4, 2026. We refresh this page every week after Freddie Mac publishes its Thursday rate survey, and again whenever a big forecast or Fed decision comes out.
- Will mortgage rates go down soon? Probably not by much. Fannie Mae expects the 30-year rate to average 7.4% in late 2026 and 7.5% through 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association sees about 7.3% now and above 7% all of next year.
- Where rates are today: Freddie Mac’s weekly average was 7.24% for the 30-year fixed and 6.60% for the 15-year fixed (week of October 29, 2026). A year ago the 30-year was 6.17%.
- The Fed is leaning the other way: it held its key rate at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, and its own September projections show no rate cuts in 2027.
- Next big dates: the October jobs report (Nov 6), October inflation (Nov 10) and the Fed meeting on December 8–9.
This week’s mortgage rates
| Loan type | This week | Last week | A year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 7.24% | 7.32% | 6.17% |
| 15-year fixed | 6.60% | — | — |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending October 29, 2026. These are national averages for buyers with strong credit and 20% down. Your quote can be higher or lower, so always compare at least three lenders.
What moved this week: rates dipped for a second week and hit their lowest level of October, but they are still about a full point higher than a year ago. The Fed held rates steady on October 28, yet two officials voted for a hike, so markets still expect another increase in December.
What the big forecasters expect
| Forecaster | Late 2026 (Q4) | 2027 | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 7.4% | 7.5% in every quarter | October 14, 2026 |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 7.3% | Above 7% all year | October 11, 2026 |
| Federal Reserve (fed funds rate, median official) | 4.1% | 4.1% (no cuts) | September 16, 2026 |
The Fed row is the Fed’s own short-term rate, not a mortgage rate. It matters because it shows the Fed is not planning to make borrowing cheaper next year. Both mortgage forecasts were raised sharply in October. In September, Fannie Mae still expected 6.7% for 2027, so a jump to 7.5% in one month tells you how fast this outlook can change.
What these rates mean for your payment
Monthly principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan (taxes and insurance not included):
| Rate | $300,000 loan | $350,000 loan | $400,000 loan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $1,896 | $2,212 | $2,528 |
| 7.0% | $1,996 | $2,329 | $2,661 |
| 7.24% (today) | $2,044 | $2,385 | $2,726 |
| 7.5% (Fannie Mae’s 2027 call) | $2,098 | $2,447 | $2,797 |
| 8.0% | $2,201 | $2,568 | $2,935 |
Key dates to watch
| Date | What happens | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thursdays | Freddie Mac weekly rate survey | The national average we track on this page |
| Fri, Nov 6, 2026 | October jobs report (BLS) | A strong report usually pushes rates up |
| Tue, Nov 10, 2026 | October inflation (CPI) | Hot inflation was the trigger for October’s rate spike |
| Fri, Dec 4, 2026 | November jobs report | The last jobs report before the Fed meets |
| Dec 8–9, 2026 | Fed meeting + new projections (“dot plot”) | Markets expect a possible rate hike |
| Thu, Dec 10, 2026 | November inflation (CPI) | Sets the tone for early 2027 |
What to do if you’re buying or refinancing
- Buying soon: plan your budget at today’s rate, not at a rate you hope for. If you find the right home, a rate lock protects you from a jump before closing.
- Waiting: waiting only pays if rates really fall, and you give up a year of equity in the meantime. Run the math in our guide Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop?
- Refinancing: with rates above 7%, most owners can’t save by refinancing yet. See whether refinance rates will fall in 2027 and check your break-even with the refinance calculator.
- Need cash, not a new rate? Compare a HELOC vs. a home equity loan before giving up a low first-mortgage rate.
More on where rates are headed
- Will mortgage rates go down in 2027? The full forecast breakdown
- Will mortgage rates go down in December 2026? What the Fed meeting means
- Will interest rates go down in 2027? What the Fed’s dot plot says
- Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop? The real math of waiting
- Will refinance rates go down in 2027? When a refi makes sense
- The Fed’s October 2026 decision and what it meant for mortgages
FAQ
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
The major forecasts say not by much. Fannie Mae expects an average of 7.5% for all of 2027 and the MBA expects rates to stay above 7%. Forecasts can change quickly, though. Fannie Mae’s 2027 call jumped from 6.7% to 7.5% in a single month.
Will mortgage rates go back to 3%?
No major forecaster expects that. The 3% rates of 2020–2021 came from emergency conditions. Today’s forecasts for 2027 sit around 7% to 7.5%.
Does a Fed rate hike raise my mortgage rate?
Not directly. Fixed mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields. If markets already expect a hike, mortgage rates may barely move when it happens. A surprise, or a change in the inflation outlook, moves them more.
How often is this page updated?
Every week after Freddie Mac’s Thursday survey, plus whenever Fannie Mae, the MBA or the Fed publish something new. The “Last updated” date at the top shows the latest refresh.
Is the rate on this page the rate I’ll get?
No. These are national averages for strong-credit borrowers with 20% down. Your rate depends on your credit score, down payment, loan type and lender, so get several quotes.
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct 29, 2026); Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Housing Forecast (Oct 2026); Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Finance Forecast (Oct 11, 2026); Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Oct 28, 2026) and Summary of Economic Projections (Sept 16, 2026); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar. Payment examples computed by Keys & Coffee. This page is general education, not financial advice. Keys & Coffee is not a lender.