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Pending Home Sales Hit a Record Low: What It Means for Buyers

Signed home contracts just hit the lowest level NAR has ever recorded. Bad news for the market, maybe good news for your next offer.

By Keys & Coffee Editorial Team · Updated · 5 min read

For sale sign on a lawn with a small bird perched on top
Quick answers

  • The news: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% in September 2026 to 66.0, the lowest reading in the index’s history.
  • Compared with last year: Signed contracts were down 11.3%, and every region fell.
  • Why: NAR’s chief economist pointed to fast-rising mortgage rates, which crossed 7% in late September.
  • For buyers: Fewer competing offers usually means more room to negotiate on price, repairs and closing costs.

Picture an open house where the snack table is full and nobody’s fighting over the last cookie. That’s roughly what the housing market looked like in September.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on October 20 that pending home sales dropped to their lowest level since the index began. Here’s what that number really measures, why it fell so hard, and what it could mean if you’re buying or selling this winter.

What “pending home sales” actually means

A home is “pending” when the buyer and seller have signed a contract, but the sale hasn’t closed yet. NAR tracks these signatures every month in its Pending Home Sales Index. Because most contracts close within one to two months, the index works like a sneak preview of future closed sales.

So a record-low reading in September is a hint that closed sales in October and November could look soft too.

The numbers, region by region

The national index fell to 66.0. It was down 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025. All four regions declined both month over month and year over year.

Region Change vs. August Change vs. Sept 2025
Northeast -4.2% -9.4%
Midwest -6.5% -8.7%
South -8.2% -12.0%
West -9.2% -15.0%
U.S. -7.3% -11.3%

Even the strongest big metros slipped. Among the 50 largest markets, Nashville (-2.0%), Hartford (-2.1%) and San Francisco (-3.5%) posted the smallest annual declines.

Why contracts fell off a cliff

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun blamed fast-rising mortgage rates. The timing lines up. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey had the 30-year fixed at 6.95% in mid-September, then above 7% on September 24 for the first time since January 2025, and 7.40% by early October.

Example

Take a $400,000 loan, principal and interest only:

  • At 6.17% (roughly a year ago): about $2,442/month
  • At 7.24% (late October 2026): about $2,726/month

That’s about $284 more every month for the same house. Plenty of buyers simply stopped signing.

Yun also said that steady jobs and wage gains help, but affordability is driven more by rates. He suggested rates may be close to topping out, and that some buyers and sellers are waiting on the sidelines for a better moment.

Myth buster“Record-low sales mean prices are about to crash.” Not necessarily. Prices depend on supply too. NAR’s existing-home report showed the September median price at $417,500, up 1.3% from a year earlier, the 39th straight month of annual gains. Fewer sales and flat-ish prices can happen at the same time when sellers also hold back.

What this means if you’re buying

A slow market is a buyer’s market in miniature. With fewer people writing offers, you may have more time to decide, and more leverage once you do.

  • Negotiate beyond price. Ask for seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown. See how mortgage points work before you ask.
  • Don’t skip the inspection. Less competition means you rarely need to waive it.
  • Know your real budget. Use the home affordability calculator with today’s rates, not last year’s.
  • Check closing costs early. Our closing costs guide and closing cost calculator help you know what to ask the seller to cover.
Fun factAn index reading of 100 equals the level of contract activity in 2001, a year NAR considers a “normal” market. A reading of 66.0 means contract signings were about a third below that baseline.

What this means if you’re selling

Pricing right matters more than ever. NAR has noted that higher inventory and longer days on market give buyers more bargaining power. Homes priced for last spring’s market may sit. A small price cut early often beats a bigger one after 60 days.

If you’ve got a low-rate loan, check whether it’s an assumable mortgage. A buyer who can take over a cheaper rate may pay more for your home.

What to watch next

  • October existing-home sales: NAR releases them on November 12, 2026. They’ll show whether September’s weak contracts turned into weak closings.
  • Weekly mortgage rates: Freddie Mac’s survey dipped to 7.24% for the week of October 29. Two weeks of declines is a start, not a trend.
  • The Fed on December 9: A hike could push bond yields and mortgage rates back up.

Bottom line: the record low is a signal that buyers are stretched, not that the market is broken. If your numbers work, this quieter stretch can be a good time to shop. Run them with the mortgage calculator first.

FAQ

What was the pending home sales index in September 2026?

It was 66.0, down 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025, according to NAR. It’s the lowest reading in the index’s history.

What’s the difference between pending and existing home sales?

Pending sales count signed contracts. Existing-home sales count deals that have actually closed. Pending sales usually lead closed sales by one to two months.

Is it a good time to buy a house when sales are low?

It can be easier to negotiate, but the right time depends on your budget, job stability and how long you’ll stay. A lower price doesn’t help if the payment doesn’t fit.

Are home prices falling in 2026?

Nationally, not much. NAR’s September median price was $417,500, up 1.3% year over year, though some local markets are down.

Sources: National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales report (October 20, 2026) and Existing-Home Sales report (October 13, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. This article is general education, not financial advice. Keys & Coffee is not a lender.

Keys & Coffee Editorial Team

We turn lender-speak into plain English. We check our numbers against official sources like the CFPB, HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and we update guides when the rules change.

Keys & Coffee is an independent education site. We are not a lender or mortgage broker, we do not take loan applications or payments, and nothing here is financial advice. This site is not affiliated with Axia Home Loans, Axia Financial, LLC, or Planet Home Lending. Rates and rules change often — always confirm details with a licensed loan officer and check any lender on the NMLS Consumer Access site.

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